TARNAK, Afghanistan — Two hours before Kandahar's provincial police chief was slain Friday by a suicide bomber and 24 hours before another assassin wearing a suicide belt killed five U.S. soldiers and four Afghans in eastern Afghanistan, Brig.-Gen. Ahmed Habibi predicted the Taliban was about to launch a spate of such attacks.
"The enemy has realized that he has no ability to conduct large scale operations anywhere, so he has switched tactics," said Habibi, commander of the Afghan army brigade that is partnered with Canadian and U.S. troops in Panjwaii and Dand districts. "He will try his best to assassinate high government officials and ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) soldiers."
Hamdullah Nazak is the charismatic 33-year-old district leader for Dand — which with Canadian help has emerged a model of good local governance in the South.
"Of course. It's the only way for the Taliban now," Nazak, who is reputed to have survived 11 attempts on his life, said during an interview in his office in the village of Deh-e-Bagh.
"The government's strength and control means there is no other way for them to conduct themselves. The last resort for them is to blow themselves attacking officials."
These recent atrocities have garnered considerable media attention, which is presumably a large part of their intent. However, according to Afghan, Canadian and American officials interviewed during several days spent last week travelling about 300 kilometres on roads and dirt tracks from the Horn of Panjwaii to the southern edge of the Red Desert in Dand district, such attacks should not be regarded as signs of strength.
There was universal agreement that they were acts of desperation by an insurgency that had suffered a string of battlefield losses since a huge influx of U.S. and Afghan forces into the area last year. Moreover, the Taliban had subsequently angered their core supporters in the rural south by killing and maiming many civilians during suicide attacks and other forms of intimidation.
Recent incidents that had caused anger included the Taliban cutting off the ears of men taking cash-for-work from the government and the murder of a man who managed water resources for a village.
In areas where the Taliban once enjoyed strong local support, "people are grudgingly realizing the insurgents have no other means to confront your forces or Afghan forces," Habibi said.
Earlier, at a meeting of senior officers in Dand on Friday, Lt.-Col. Eltafullah, commander of the Afghan battalion in the district, said he was "optimistic about the future because the population is becoming more friendly," because of the Taliban's greater recent emphasis on violence against Afghans.
A good gauge, the colonel said, was that for the first time elders had voluntarily come to him recently to ask if he would convene shuras at which they could discuss their problems with the government.
The dramatic turnaround in Dand, where there were few ISAF or Afghan forces until two years ago, was such that Col. Richard Giguere, Canada's commander, told Habibi and Eltafullah that the district might be the first place in Kandahar where western troops handed over responsibility to locals.
"We think Dand is very close to the point where it can handed over to Afghan forces," Giguere said.
One of the reasons for such thinking was that all 34 schools in Dand had now reopened after having been shuttered for several years. In neighbouring Panjwaii, a Canadian-funded school in Salavat that had sat idle for months after having been refurbished finally welcomed 23 students five days ago. By Sunday the number of students there had risen to more than 120.
"I'm enthusiastic because I see it. We all see it," said Howard Coombs, an adviser to Task Force Kandahar, of the shift in how the public perceived the Taliban and local government leaders. "When you don't stumble on IEDs because you have been told about them before, that is a sign that the population is siding with us."
"They may hold some of the same views as the Taliban but they do not agree with them about everything. We have exploited that. The local population wants schools, clinics and roads. The Taliban does not."
There had been no demonstrations in Dand against the burning of a Qur'an in the U.S. because "the people and their government are becoming closer," Nazak, the district leader, said.
However, much work remained to be done, Nazak told his Canadian and American visitors. Pointing to his desk drawer, he said he had a list of 73 other things he wanted their help with.
BY MATTHEW FISHER, POSTMEDIA NEWS